Some of the reasons why I started this challenge
Yesterday Bram tweeted something which reminded me about some of the thoughts I had when starting this challenge.
People seem to freak out at the possibility for there being arbitrage opportunities. Everybody calm down. This is how financial markets work. Arbitrage happening is a good thing. If there was no arbitrage you wouldn't know the fair price.
— Bram Cohen🌱 (@bramcohen) January 20, 2022
I'm not sure who was freaking out - the current situation was completely predictable.
Nobody knows what anything is worth
Since we are in the very early days of CATs there is nothing in place to provide an accurate price.
The closest we have to price discovery is offerbin and hash.green but the volume is really low.
Here is a screenshot of the OKRA discord where we can see wildly different prices being suggested in a matter of minutes - OKRA is already listed on Hashgreen.
Most of these people are trying to flip the CAT they just picked up for a quick buck.
We are early which means most projects are quick and easy to launch
Most of the recent activity started up when Chia Network held the AMA with the demo of offer files. That was less than 2 weeks ago.
The projects that have been created since then are things that can be thrown together quickly; pick a logo, spin up a discord server, maybe even a website, done!
It takes time and money to build something good.
We are arguably in a crypto bear market
The wider cryptocurrency market is down. This further reduces volume and can lead to greater volatility.
For developers it's the perfect time to build things - especially on Chia with things like the Clovyr developer challenge coming up where you can win cash prizes for 24 hours hacking around with Chialisp!
Things to look out for
Expect to see teams of developers with experience shipping products on other blockchains coming over to Chia.
We already have two examples of this;
- Flexpool - Pivoted from Ethereum mining pool to Chia farming pool
- Stably - Has released stablecoins on multiple chains
Pay extra attention to any CATs or NFTs that come from teams with this kind of background.
My strategy
- Pick up a bit of everything
- Pick up more of something if it shows some amount of potential
- Don't completely sell out of anything
- Look for crazy arbitrage opportunities - this is the wild west and they exist everywhere
- Expect 99% of the portfolio to be worthless in 6 months. Out of the remaining 1% there might be some winners that 1,000x
- Diversify into NFTs, DAOs, or anything that other people might expect to have some kind of utility value
- Treat this situation as time limited - eventually people will catch on and the opportunity will be reduced - the time to act is now!
Current portfolio breakdown (gross)
| CAT | Amount | Description |
|---|---|---|
| SBX | 717 | Meme coin that promises to be galactic internet money |
| LKY8 | 8,300 | Meme coin with a lower supply than Spacebucks |
| MJV | 200 | Provably fair betting game built on the Chia Blockchain |
| ROSE | 20 | Platform token developed by Chives |
| XIP | 1,750,000 | A coin that "has absolutely no monetary value" |
| CSH | 10,000 | The first CAT in the CryptoShibe collection |
| CSHP | 579 | The more exclusive cousin of CryptoShibe Gold |
| BAKL | 2,746 | Part of the future PecanRolls ecosystem. |
| BUNS | 20,000 | Part of the future PecanRolls ecosystem. |
| CKC | 2,510 | A coin for lovers of classical jazz and smoke-filled bars |
| SPTN | 0.1 | A reward for those who promote other tokens with the greatest conviction |
| XSHIB | 17,262 | SHIBgreen fork CAT. |
| TTT | 50 | Can be used for discounts on Tiny Tardigrade NFTs |
| FU | 1 | Wake up sheeple! It's not just a flat earth, it's a Flat Universe! |
| XIPM | 10.255 | Limited supply coin for fools gold community members |
| GTH | 1,000,000 | I don't even know |
| XCH | 0.10011111111 | The rails for the internet of markets |
| SM1 | 1 | Space Marmot Premium which can one day be used to mint an NFT |
| MMT | 1 | A golden ticket, issued by the Marvelous Marmot King |
| XCH | -0.023 | Collateral pledged to borrow USDS |
| USDS | -230 | Borrowed and used to buy Space Marmot Premium |
I have sourced another CAT related to a (non-marmot) NFT but am leaving that until the next blog post to cool down from the recent NFT mania that has taken over this blog.
As always, I'm open to any trade offers sent to 1mojo@pm.me or on twitter!